Kiel, Germany · spring 2026 · model, not observation
Spring came 3 days early
- Spring bloom 2026
- 1991–2020 average
- around 7 May
- Springs 1940–2025
- 12 of 86 came earlier than 2026, 2 on the same day of the year
- Track record
- good
Every year since 1940
3 days earlier2026 · 5 May
| Year | Spring bloom | Days from average− earlier, + laterearliest firstlatest first |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | −3 | |
| 2025 | −8 | |
| 2024 | −20 | |
| 2023 | −1 | |
| 2022 | 0 | |
| 2021 | +10 | |
| 2020 | −7 | |
| 2019 | −10 | |
| 2018 | −1 | |
| 2017 | +1 | |
| 2016 | +3 | |
| 2015 | +2 | |
| 2014 | −15 | |
| 2013 | +8 | |
| 2012 | 0 | |
| 2011 | −8 | |
| 2010 | +11 | |
| 2009 | −8 | |
| 2008 | −1 | |
| 2007 | −19 | |
| 2006 | +5 | |
| 2005 | 0 | |
| 2004 | −1 | |
| 2003 | +1 | |
| 2002 | −2 | |
| 2001 | +9 | |
| 2000 | −4 | |
| 1999 | −2 | |
| 1998 | −6 | |
| 1997 | +9 | |
| 1996 | +17 | |
| 1995 | +9 | |
| 1994 | 0 | |
| 1993 | −2 | |
| 1992 | +5 | |
| 1991 | +10 | |
| 1990 | −15 | |
| 1989 | 0 | |
| 1988 | +7 | |
| 1987 | +14 | |
| 1986 | +10 | |
| 1985 | +16 | |
| 1984 | +13 | |
| 1983 | +4 | |
| 1982 | +14 | |
| 1981 | +7 | |
| 1980 | +20 | |
| 1979 | +19 | |
| 1978 | +17 | |
| 1977 | +13 | |
| 1976 | +10 | |
| 1975 | +9 | |
| 1974 | +2 | |
| 1973 | +15 | |
| 1972 | +10 | |
| 1971 | +8 | |
| 1970 | +22 | |
| 1969 | +18 | |
| 1968 | +1 | |
| 1967 | +6 | |
| 1966 | +10 | |
| 1965 | +15 | |
| 1964 | +8 | |
| 1963 | +18 | |
| 1962 | +15 | |
| 1961 | −10 | |
| 1960 | +10 | |
| 1959 | −3 | |
| 1958 | +17 | |
| 1957 | +14 | |
| 1956 | +20 | |
| 1955 | +23 | |
| 1954 | +18 | |
| 1953 | +6 | |
| 1952 | +2 | |
| 1951 | +15 | |
| 1950 | +6 | |
| 1949 | +1 | |
| 1948 | −2 | |
| 1947 | +8 | |
| 1946 | +2 | |
| 1945 | 0 | |
| 1944 | +13 | |
| 1943 | −3 | |
| 1942 | +20 | |
| 1941 | +29 | |
| 1940 | +18 |
A minus sign means earlier than the 1991–2020 average, a plus sign later. Dates are rounded to the nearest day. The difference is calculated before rounding, so it can look a day off.
How well the model does here
Checked against observed first lilac bloom near Kiel: 74 springs, 1951–2024, a median of 29 observations a year.
- How early or late spring was: the model was typically 3.2 days off; guessing an average spring every year would have been 8.8 days off.
- Skill score 0.87 (95% range 0.81 to 0.91; 1 is perfect, 0 is no better than that guess).
Grade: good. Even at the cautious end of the range (0.81), the model is well ahead of simply guessing an average spring every year (0.5 or more). How the grades work