Örebro, Sweden · spring 2026 · model, not observation
Spring came 4 days early
- Spring bloom 2026
- 1991–2020 average
- around 24 May
- Springs 1940–2025
- 14 of 86 came earlier than 2026, 1 on the same day of the year
- Track record
- fair
Every year since 1940
4 days earlier2026 · 20 May
| Year | Spring bloom | Days from average− earlier, + laterearliest firstlatest first |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | −4 | |
| 2025 | −8 | |
| 2024 | −2 | |
| 2023 | 0 | |
| 2022 | +4 | |
| 2021 | +5 | |
| 2020 | +3 | |
| 2019 | −6 | |
| 2018 | −9 | |
| 2017 | +3 | |
| 2016 | −1 | |
| 2015 | +4 | |
| 2014 | −4 | |
| 2013 | 0 | |
| 2012 | 0 | |
| 2011 | −8 | |
| 2010 | +2 | |
| 2009 | −3 | |
| 2008 | −6 | |
| 2007 | −7 | |
| 2006 | +2 | |
| 2005 | +2 | |
| 2004 | −9 | |
| 2003 | +3 | |
| 2002 | −4 | |
| 2001 | +2 | |
| 2000 | −6 | |
| 1999 | +5 | |
| 1998 | +4 | |
| 1997 | +11 | |
| 1996 | +13 | |
| 1995 | +10 | |
| 1994 | −1 | |
| 1993 | −9 | |
| 1992 | +1 | |
| 1991 | +10 | |
| 1990 | −17 | |
| 1989 | −4 | |
| 1988 | +4 | |
| 1987 | +10 | |
| 1986 | +3 | |
| 1985 | +9 | |
| 1984 | −1 | |
| 1983 | +2 | |
| 1982 | +5 | |
| 1981 | +1 | |
| 1980 | +8 | |
| 1979 | +7 | |
| 1978 | +6 | |
| 1977 | +9 | |
| 1976 | +5 | |
| 1975 | −1 | |
| 1974 | +2 | |
| 1973 | +6 | |
| 1972 | +11 | |
| 1971 | +4 | |
| 1970 | +7 | |
| 1969 | +7 | |
| 1968 | +5 | |
| 1967 | +7 | |
| 1966 | +9 | |
| 1965 | +8 | |
| 1964 | +2 | |
| 1963 | +3 | |
| 1962 | +15 | |
| 1961 | −1 | |
| 1960 | 0 | |
| 1959 | −5 | |
| 1958 | +9 | |
| 1957 | +8 | |
| 1956 | +7 | |
| 1955 | +13 | |
| 1954 | +4 | |
| 1953 | −7 | |
| 1952 | +1 | |
| 1951 | +9 | |
| 1950 | −2 | |
| 1949 | −5 | |
| 1948 | −4 | |
| 1947 | 0 | |
| 1946 | +1 | |
| 1945 | +1 | |
| 1944 | +13 | |
| 1943 | −6 | |
| 1942 | +10 | |
| 1941 | +11 | |
| 1940 | +5 |
A minus sign means earlier than the 1991–2020 average, a plus sign later. Dates are rounded to the nearest day. The difference is calculated before rounding, so it can look a day off.
How well the model does here
Checked against observed first lilac bloom near Örebro: 16 springs, 2009–2024, a median of 8.5 observations a year.
- How early or late spring was: the model was typically 2.7 days off; guessing an average spring every year would have been 4.5 days off.
- Skill score 0.64 (95% range 0.23 to 0.84; 1 is perfect, 0 is no better than that guess).
Grade: fair. Even at the cautious end of the range (0.23), the model beats simply guessing an average spring every year, but stays below 0.5. How the grades work